• This strategy includes an analysis of the current situation in Belarus and
possible scenarios for its development, an assessment of the strengths and
weaknesses of the Lukashenka regime, and a long-term action plan divided into
several stages.

• The strategy aims to create foreign policy conditions that will weaken the
position of the Lukashenka regime, while also pursuing several key goals to
ensure long-term democratic development in Belarus and to strengthen its
sovereignty.

• Proposed short-term measures include de-legitimising Lukashenka on the
global arena and discrediting any contacts with him, coordinating Western
actions, establishing a communication channel with the regime, placing a
moratorium on new ambassadors to Belarus, containing Russia through
pressure and cooperation, driving a wedge between the Lukashenka regime
and China, putting pressure on third countries that recognize Lukashenka’s
legitimacy, applying a highly focused sanctions policy, providing assistance to
civil society, and correctly positioning Western efforts to overcome the political
crisis in Belarus.

• Medium-term measures for after the political crisis in Belarus has been
overcome include intensifying full-fledged cooperation with Belarus, reducing
its trade and financial dependence on Russia by creating a favourable trade
and investment regime, ensuring its accession to the WTO, forming a loan
and investment portfolio for it, reducing its energy dependence on Russia, and
purchasing electricity from Belarus’s NPP.

• Long-term measures include neutralising the “military threat” of NATO to
Belarus, building strong, long-term ties with Belarus, and securing international
guarantees of its neutral status.

Photo: Pavel Krychko