18/8/2020

Addressed to

Authorities, administrators, policy advisors and security services of Belarus – those, who want the best for their country and her citizens

Sent on the behalf of

Economists, who unanimously support the following statement:

Catastrophic economic hardship for Belarusian citizens is certain in the case of military violence, and further abuse of human and economic rights.

Economic history provides us with absolute certainty that the national prosperity rests on transparency and accountability of authorities, as well as their respect for human and economic rights. Without a clear commitment to restoring human and democratic rights and without the guarantees of resignation from confronting the social and political protests by force, the signatories of this letter are unanimous in predicting the Belarusian State’s devastating economic decline.

While the human cost of abusing human rights cannot be recovered, it is still possible for you, the persons who influence the policy, to find honour in steering the nation away from further tragedy. Otherwise, the misfortunes of the nation that will ensue are as follows:

• Human and financial capital flight will accelerate
  Investment will evaporate, access to foreign capital will decrease, and market trust will be lost. Doctors, engineers, and skilled professionals will leave en-mass, depriving the nation of both the cultural tissue as well as the talent needed for the national wealth. Belarus will not become an “IT country” by blocking the Internet for its residents and businesses for political reasons. Extant research demonstrates that blocking internet comes with economic cost.

• Sovereign credit rating will descend into junk
  The already high cost of Belarusian public debt servicing will further increase causing higher tax burden and/or lower public expenditures and deterioration of public services. A country where state imposes administrative control over the 3rd largest private bank will never have a high sovereign rating.

• Macroeconomic stability will be lost
  The resulting loss of both human and financial capital together with very limited access to international funds will lead to macroeconomic instability. This will cause high inflation, devaluation of Belarusian rouble, increased dollarization of the economy and even bank runs.Belarus is a small open economy with little natural resources, which heavily needs educated and experienced professionals, foreign and domestic investment, access to international financial markets and macroeconomic stability.Just as economic history has shown that the lack of respect for human dignity sooner or later leads to economic ruin, it also shows that the bravery of officials speaking and actioning truth to power is a catalyst to prosperity.

Belarus deserves better future. Stand on the right side of history!

Signed by (in alphabetic order):

1. Elżbieta Adamowicz, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Professor
2. Aleś Alachnovič, CASE Belarus, Vice-President
3. CarloAmenta, University of Palermo(Italy), Associate Professor
4. EwaBalcerowicz, CASE, Chairwoman of the Supervisory Council; Association of Polish Economists (TEP), Vice-President
5. Leszek Balcerowicz, Civil Development Forum (Poland), Founder; SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Professor; Deputy Prime Minister of Poland (1989-1991, 1997-2001); Chairman of the National Bank of Poland (2001-2007)
6. Tadeusz Baczko, CASE(Poland), Professor
7. Roel Beetsma, PhD, Amsterdam School of Economics, Professor and Vice-Dean
8. Maria Bieć, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Associate Professor
9. Marcin Bielecki, University of Warsaw, Assistant Professor
10. Maciej Bitner, Polish Financial Supervision Authority, Chief Specialist
11. Michele Boldrin, Department of Economics, Washington University in Saint Louis (USA), Joseph G. Hoyt Distinguished University Professor of Economics
12. Philip Booth, St. Mary’s University (UK), Professor of Finance, Public Policy and Ethics
13. Krzysztof Brzeziński, Oriel College of the University of Oxford, College Lecturer
14. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Associate Professor
15. dr Paweł Bukowski, London School of Economics and Political Science, Research Economist; Institute of Economics of the Polish Academy of Sciences
16. Joanna Clifton-Sprigg, University of Bath (UK), Assistant Professor
17. Admir Čavalić, Association Multi (Bosnia and Herzegovina), Director
18. Arkadiusz J. Derkacz, University of Social Sciences (Poland), Adjunct Professor; “Ambitna Polska” Foundation, Member of the Council
19. Krzysztof Dobrowolski, University of Gdansk (Poland), Associate Professor
20. Paweł Doligalski, University of Bristol, Assistant Professor in Economics
21. Sławomir Dudek, PhD, Pracodawcy RP (Poland), Chief Economist; RIED SGH Warsaw School of Economics; Association of Polish Economists (TEP)
22. Piotr Dybka, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Assistant
23. Piotr Dworczak, Northwestern University (USA), Assistant Professor
24. Anthony J. Evans, ESCP Business School (UK), Professor of Economics
25. Michał Federowicz, Graduate School for Social Research, Institute of Philosophy and Sociology, Polish Academy of Science, Director

26. Georg Fischer, Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (Austria), Senior Research Associate; European Commission – Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities, Director for ‘Social Affairs’ (2016-2017)
27. Guido Friebel, Goethe University (Germany), Chair for Human Resources
28. Stanisław Gomułka, Polish Academy of Sciences, Member; Deputy Minister of Finance in Poland (2008); Professor of Economics in the London School of Economics (1970-2005)
29. Jakub Growiec, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Professor
30. Maciej Grabowski, Centre for Strategic Mind-Set; Institute for Responsible Finance
31. Jan Hagemejer, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw
32. Christopher A. Hartwell, PhD, Bournemouth University (UK), Professor; CASE Fellow
33. dr Peter Hill, School of Business, Law and Society, St. Mary’s University (UK), Programme Director – Postgraduate Business, Senior Lecturer in Strategic Management
34. Janusz Jankowiak, NWAI Brokerage House (Poland), Chair of Supervisory Board
35. Elena Jarocinska, European Business School Wiesbaden
36. Marek Jarocinski, European Central Bank and Barcelona GSE
37. Halina Jaščanka, ex-McKinsey, Senior Engagement Manager
38. Tomasz Karasek, Wharton MBA, Executive; Association of Polish Economists (TEP), Founding Member
39. Jakub Karnowski, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Assistant Professor; Independent member of supervisory boards; World Bank Consultant
40. Sergii Kiiashko, Kyiv School of Economics, Assistant Professor
41. Marcin Kolasa, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Associate Professor
42. Andrzej Kondratowicz, SWPS University (Warsaw), Professor of Economics; Association of Polish Economists (TEP), Founding Member
43. Paweł Kopiec, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Assistant Professor
44. Ludwik Kotecki, Economic Advisor to the Speaker of the Senate (Upper House of the Parliament in Poland)
45. Robert Kowalski, Stanford University
46. Piotr Kozarzewski, Maria Curie-Skłodowska University in Lublin (Poland), Associate Professor
47. Piotr Kuczyński, Association of Polish Economists (TEP), Financial Market Analyst
48. Andrzej Leder , Institute of Philosophy and Sociology, Polish Academy of Science, Associate Professor
49. Dariusz Ledworowski, PhD, CASE (Poland), Council Member
50. Elena Leontjeva, Lithuanian Free Market Institute, President

51. Aleksander Łaszek, PhD, Civil Development Forum (Poland), Vice-President
52. Krzysztof Makarski, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Associate Professor
53. Tomasz Marciniak, Strategy Consultant, Economist
54. Tomasz Mickiewicz, Aston University (Birmingham, UK), Professor of Economics
55. Wojciech Młodawski, Business Consulting, Economist
56. Lorenzo Montanari, Property Rights Alliance (USA), Executive Director
57. Sierž Naŭrodski, CASE Belarus, President
58. Jerzy Osiatyński, Institute of Economics of the Polish Academy of Sciences, Professor; Minister of Finance (1992-1993); Monetary Policy Council (2013-2019), Member
59. Wojciech Paczos, PhD, Cardiff University (UK), Assistant Professor
60. Radek Paluszynski, Department of Economics, University of Houston (USA), Assistant Professor
61. Piotr Palutkiewicz, Economist
62. Martin Pánek, Liberální Institute (Czechia), Director
63. Julia Patorska, Association of Polish Economists (TEP), President
64. Jakub Pawelczak, University of Minnesota (USA), PhD Student
65. Mateusz Pipień, Department of Empirical Analyses of Economic Stability, Cracow University of Economics (Poland), Associate Professor
66. Paweł Pisany, Institute of Economics of the Polish Academy of Sciences, Assistant Professor
67. Grzegorz Poniatowski, PhD, CASE (Poland), Vice-President
68. Tanja Porčnik, Visio Institut (Slovenia), President
69. Sergiusz Prokurat, PhD, Institute of Economics Polish Academy of Sciences
70. Jerzy Pruski, Idea Bank, Acting CEO; Bank Guarantee Fund, CEO (2009-2016); The International Association of Deposit Insurers, President (2012-2015); National Bank of Poland, First Deputy President (2004-2008); Monetary Policy Council, Member (1998-2004)
71. Marek Radzikowski, PhD, MBA, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Assistant Professor
72. Dalibor Rohac, American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (AEI), Resident Scholar
73. Andrzej Rzońca, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Associate Professor; Member of the Monetary Policy Council in Poland (2010-2016)
74. Maja Rynko, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Assistant Professor
75. Dobromił Serwa, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Associate Professor

76. prof. Bican Sahin, Freedom Research Association (Turkey), President
77. Urszula Skorupska, Institute of Economics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Deputy Director; Association of Polish Economists (TEP), Member
78. Piotr Soroczyński, Polish Chamber of Commerce, Chief Economist
79. Carlo Stagnaro, Istituto Bruno Leoni (Italy), Senior Fellow
80. Maciej Stanczuk, Polish Confederation Lewiatan, Economic Advisor; Entrepreneur
81. Małgorzata Starczewska-Krzysztoszek, PhD, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, Assistant Professor; Association of Polish Economists (TEP), Member of the Board
82. Grzegorz Szczodrowski, PhD, Economics Faculty University of Gdansk, Assistant Professor
83. Marek Tatała, Civil Development Forum (Poland), Vice-President
84. Jan Teresiński, European University Institute (Italy), Researcher
85. Vera Tkach, Consultant
86. Andrzej Torój, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Associate Professor
87. Rafał Trzeciakowski, Civil Development Forum (Poland), Economist
88. Joanna Tyrowicz, GRAPE – Group for Research in Applied Economics
89. Dominik Wasiluk, Institute for Social and Economic Studies (Poland), Member
90. Joanna Wawrzyniak, Faculty of Philosophy and Sociology, University of Warsaw, Associate Professor
91. Janusz Wdzięczak, PhD, Thomas Jefferson Research Center (USA)
92. Wiktor Wojciechowski, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Associate Professor
93. Cezary Wójcik, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Associate Professor; Center for Leadership, Founding Director
94. Marcin Wolski, PhD, Economist
95. Richard Woodward, CASE (Poland), Member of the Supervisory Council; University of Edinburgh Business School (UK), Lecturer in International Business
96. Tomasz Woźniak, University of Melbourne, Lecturer
97. Tomasz Wróblewski, Warsaw Enterprise Institute, CEO
98. Marcin Zieliński, Civil Development Forum (Poland), Economist